This update incorporates the July 2025 jobs report.

Here is the latest estimate of the breakeven rate for monthly payrolls, compared with monthly payrolls from recent months.

The breakeven rate is considerably below its peak in early 2024 because the immigration surge ended and the population continues to age. The current estimate is likely too high because it is based on Census population estimates that appear to assume a higher rate of immigration in 2025 than is likely. Also, the adjustment that aligns the household survey with the payroll survey concept of employment raises the breakeven rate meaningfully.

The Excel file with the data underlying these charts is here.

These charts and data update my policy brief available at the Peterson Institute for International Economics website. Methodological details and policy implications are in that brief. Please contact me with questions.